Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany

No . 99 Macroeconomic Regimes Business Cycle

The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework d...

Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters

In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...

assessment of the efficiency of s.p.g.c refineries using network dea

data envelopment analysis (dea) is a powerful tool for measuring relative efficiency of organizational units referred to as decision making units (dmus). in most cases dmus have network structures with internal linking activities. traditional dea models, however, consider dmus as black boxes with no regard to their linking activities and therefore do not provide decision makers with the reasons...

Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid

— We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and 113 recipients during 1970–2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to the business cycle in both donor and recipient countries. While aid outlays contract sharply during severe downturns in donor countries, they rise steeply when aid-receiving countries experienc...

Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts